BY: Shafiq Mir
Soon after becoming JKPCC chief for next term, Prof.Saif-u-Din Soz, while talking to media persons at Jammu said that Congress will form next government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir . However, he clarified that if not alone, the next coalition in the state will be led by Congress . His claim may sound incredible to many, but the political pundits and observers watching closely JK politics and situation give weight- age to the second part of his claim in which Prof Soz said that next coalition will be led by Congress at least. “While Congress is emerging as a strong force in Kashmir and Ladakh regions, Jammu continues to be its strongholdâ€, he said adding; “Our party has emerged as the largest political force in the state and has the potential to form the next government on its own or lead the next governmentâ€.
Most of the political observers is of the opinion that his claim was well calculated in the present political situation of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Though it is fact that there is no chance for Congress to emerge as largest party in the state in 2014 assembly elections or held before the due date as claimed by Prof Soz, but even then Congress has chances to lead the next coalition government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. His claim is neither based on the performance of his party in the present term nor his party has any attractive slogan for the next assembly elections , it is only based on the calculation of the present political situation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir .
Keeping in view, the present numbers of MLAs in the state assembly of Jammu and Kashmir, Congress is at number three among the leading political parties of the state . And there seems no chance for the party to change the present grade in the next assembly elections , yet the party has all chances to for the next coalition government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir .
Politically,there are two arch rival political regional parties of the state , National Conference and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Though PDP came in to existence only in 2002 assembly elections, while the National Conference is the only oldest regional force of Kashmir which has many negatives and positives in its credit . However, the fast increasing ground of PDP has posed a serious political threat to the traditional regional party National Conference . And what ever, the vote bank PDP shared in the past two assembly elections in the state it almost belonged to National Conference. In fact, a history was created when in 2002 a local regional party formed the government in the state and threw out traditional political force of the state out of power . Thought , in past too, the National Conference was many times thrown out of the power but it was done by the Congress only with the help of defections or other means . But democratically, it was only 2002 when the people of the state provided an alternative in the name of PDP under the leadership of former union home minister, Mufti Mohammad Sayed . With its aim and objective to provide a local regional alternative, the PDP has only one point program to uproot the traditional National Conference from the state . Obviously, the PDP is enemy NO 1 for National Conference which has taken up all those local emotional slogans of the state on which NC had been doing its politics . Even, this party has gone some steps ahead from NC in exploiting the emotional slogans of the state . For instance, PDP raised self rule slogan in the state when NC’s autonomy slogan was at its peak . Ultimately, the NC went silent. There are many instances where PDP went a step ahead from the NC in emotional slogans . In this situation , the National Conference feels it as its enemy NO1 .
In the present situation of the state, political observers is of the opinion that National Conference feels that at any cost it will not allow the PDP to form next government in the state . And in the same way, PDP has also decided to keep NC out of power in the state in next assembly elections at any cost . And both these parties are agree on the point at their own level that they can see Congress in power instead of the local political rival.
In such situation Congress has bigger bargaining position with any of the party . Congress is not as popular as claimed by its local chief Prof Soz, but it has better bargaining position in the present political scenario of the state when the other political parties have no chance to go for alliance.
As per the present coalition culture in the state, it seems that no single political party can form the government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir . Though there will be direct contest between two regional parties NC and PDP but none them is in position to claim the majority . And , in such situation both these parties will need the support of Congress to form the government . Political pundits say that Congress has calculated this situation and it wants to take the benefit the fight between NC and PDP . Because both these parties will not like to see each other on the chair of CM . In such situation , Congress will ask to lead the next government of the state . And both NC and PDP will not have any other option but to accept the Congress as leader of the government . Sources said, NC has already made its mind to offer the post of chief minister to Congress for the next term to keep the PDP away from the power. On the other hand , the PDP is also said to have decided that it will like to see Chief minister from Congress if could not make government independently and it has also decided to keep NC out of the power in the next term at any cost . In such circumstances, Congress doesn’t need much seats to form the next government . It can do it even if it remains at the same position as it is at present .
Author is a working journalist and Chairman All J and K Panchayat Conference . He can be reached at mirshfiq@gmail.com
