Playing with fire

Some banks spread stories about ‘unrest’ in the Kingdom with a hidden agendaAt the moment there are scare stories on a daily basis in the international press about the dangers for the world of regional unrest spreading in Saudi Arabia. They could push oil prices to $220 a barrel, it is claimed. They could trigger a new global recession.The fact that there is no noticeable unrest in Saudi Arabia or that the situation in the Kingdom is very different to that in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen is conveniently, if not deliberately, ignored. As anyone living in the Kingdom knows, last Friday’s supposed Day of Rage turned out to be a damp squib. Just as one swallow does not a summer make, a handful of demonstrators is not an event of any consequence, certainly not one to start shaking the markets. In fact, there is more discontent in the UK than in Saudi Arabia. That is clear from the mass public sector strike planned there. But “Everything normal in Saudi Arabia” does not make for startling headlines.This is not just about not letting facts get in the way of a good story. There seems to be a deliberate campaign of disinformation (as opposed to misinformation) going on. Behind it are not newspaper editors but banks. They are the ones who are making the fantastic claims. It was JP Morgan that said that uprisings in the Kingdom could trigger a fresh global recession. It was Nomura that talked about oil possibly hitting the $220 mark.Leading the pack is Goldman Sachs. It has moved beyond “what if” scenarios to openly accuse the Kingdom of deception over its oil production levels and spare capacity.The Kingdom has said after the Libyan uprising that it was raising production and could meet the entire shortfall if necessary. Goldman Sachs, however, claims that Saudi Arabia raised its production before, rather than after, the uprising in Libya and that, therefore, there is less OPEC capacity than thought to meet the Libyan shortfall. Cue a jump in oil prices!Why is Goldman Sachs so desperate to talk up the price of oil that it takes the unprecedented step of calling the Kingdom a liar? It is rumored to have taken positions in oil futures. If so, is it that it hopes to make a killing by talking up the market? Or is it that it has overplayed its hand, taken a position when oil prices were much higher, and faces financial disaster if the market does not go back to $140 or more? Is desperation the reason for its full-frontal attack, the reason why it has put any future business dealings it might have with Saudi Arabia in jeopardy?Goldman Sachs and those other banks involved in this campaign against the Kingdom forget that the world has learned not to trust or believe them. They, however, still not learned their lesson. They still think they can play the market and that it is for others to pick up the consequences.But Saudi Arabia too can take some step in silencing the baying pack — ones that would be instantly effective. What is needed is greater transparency over production and capacity. If figures were regularly published, there would be greater stability in the market. Bank and other speculators would not be able to manipulate it so easily for their own advantage.